Power Electronics for Electric Vehicles 2023-2033

The demand for electric vehicle (EV) power electronics will increase dramatically in the next ten years, primarily driven by rapid growth in the battery electric vehicle (BEV) car market where IDTechEx predicts a 15% CAGR globally over the next decade. Currently, the weighted-average battery capacity of BEV cars is increasing in all regions, piling pressure on battery supply chains and creating uncertainty. The result is that drive cycle efficiency must come to the forefront of powertrain design, meaning the time has come for high voltage wide bandgap (WBG) power electronics.

 

In this report, IDTechEx provides a deep-dive into EV power electronics with technology insights into the evolving semiconductor and package materials, including Si, SiC and GaN semiconductors, die-attach materials, wire bonding, thermal management, and more. IDTechEx presents granular forecasts detailing unit sales, GW and US$ demand for inverters, onboard chargers (OBC) and DC-DC converters segmented by voltage (600V, 1200V) and semiconductor type (Si, SiC, GaN).

 

 

Si IGBTs have dominated the medium-to-high power device range for 20 years including in EV power electronics but are giving way to a new generation of WBG materials: SiC and GaN. This will fundamentally impact the design of new power devices, including the package materials, as ever smaller and higher power-density modules, operating at higher temperatures, emerge.

 

SiC MOSFET adoption is the main story of the mid-term outlook and will grow rapidly to dominate market share, with adoption timelines for individual device types given in the report. While the performance gap between demonstrated and theoretical SiC MOSFETs is typically less than an order of magnitude, reflecting some room for progress, GaN is operating two orders of magnitude less than its theoretical limits, reflecting huge long-term potential. GaN commercialization is currently limited by its low power/voltage operation, a result of technological immaturity, and its adoption in EV depends on this improving. Today costs for bulk Gan are also prohibitive, but Gan-on-Si will initially be adopted with the first 600V GaN inverters starting to emerge.

 

OBCs and DC-DC converters operate at much lower powers than inverters, but WBG semiconductors will still be beneficial and adopted at a similar rate in these device types. As well as increasing overall power density, the greater efficiency allows for faster charging of the battery from the OBC, and less energy loss during low voltage battery charging (via the converter), increasing range. The IDTechEx report predicts GaN market entry occurs for OBC and DC-DC converters slightly earlier than for inverters due to the lower power and voltage requirements.

 

 

The report compares a new generation of compact and efficient packaging structures designed to sustain higher power densities and operating temperatures. Approaches include direct substrate cooling, ribbon bonding, direct lead bonding, copper ribbon bonds, silver or copper sintered die attach pastes, integrated heatsinks, TIM removal, oil cooling, double sided cooling and more.

 

Die attach materials are a clear pain point with higher junction temperatures and a ban on Pb materials leading the market to Ag and Cu sintered materials. Ag sintering has been in the qualification phase for many years and IDTechEx believes this is a very promising technology whose time has now come. Indeed, the nano versions being adopted rapidly today were in development for over seven years. Cu sintered materials are still largely pre commercial but have the potential to improve on the performance of Ag sintering while offering greater versatility. The report highlights and compares sintered materials and provides insight into the emerging supply chain.

 

Another key area is wire bonding. The first generation of power electronic packages used Al wire bonding which was easily applied to dies without too much force or time. However, Al has poor surface area coverage (<20%) and a lower thermal conductivity than copper. This is leading the market to different types of copper bonding, which brings new manufacturing challenges with a requirement for higher bonding powers, right at a time when WBG materials cause dies to shrink in thickness and become more fragile. The report covers case studies for different Cu bonding types in EV applications.

 

Looking at thermal management, many inverter suppliers have now eliminated the TIM between the heatsink and baseplate to improve thermal resistance, although this does not mean there are no TIM opportunities within power electronics. Many components still require a TIM and TIMs are often still used to bond the module heat sink to the water-glycol cold plates. The report provides analysis of these trends and the drivers behind adoption.

 

Inverter IGBT or SiC MOSFET modules are mostly cooled using water-glycol. However, both single-side and double-sided cooling options are used, each with their own benefits. There has also been an increase in using oil to cool power electronics to eliminate much of the water-glycol componentry within the electric drive unit, using the same oil for the motors and inverter. Whilst there has not been adoption of this approach in the current market, IDTechEx sees promise for this approach and includes a 10-year outlook for EV inverters using air, water, or oil cooling.

 

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