DNA Sequencing 2023-2033: Technologies, Markets, and Forecasts

This report covers the DNA sequencing industry, discussing the key technologies and markets involved. The report covers Sanger, Next-Generation (NGS), and nanopore sequencing, benchmarking these against each other on key metrics required by leading applications. The report includes in-depth analyses of DNA sequencing applications ranging from population genomics and companion diagnostics to forensics, identifying the requirements for each. Barriers of entry to the market and relevant challenges are analysed.

Since its inception, DNA sequencing has brought about major advancements in our understanding of biology. The DNA sequence encodes the biological information used by cells to develop and operate, and understanding the sequence of DNA is key to understanding the function of genes and other parts of the genome. The breadth of information this technology can offer has the potential to revolutionize healthcare, drug discovery, and many other fields. The importance of DNA sequencing has been further emphasized by the COVID-19 pandemic, which highlighted the need for infrastructure to effectively track and monitor outbreaks - a task well suited to DNA sequencing.

 

DNA sequencing technology has progressed in leaps and bounds over the years. The advent of next-generation sequencing (NGS) in 2004 lead to a rapid decrease in the costs of sequencing, with this reduction of cost far outpacing Moore's law. As a noteworthy example, market leader Illumina managed to lower the cost of a human whole genome sequence from an estimated US$1M in 2007, to US$1k in 2014. This drastic reduction of cost has led to a meteoric expansion of the sequencing market, with the number of related academic publications rising by more than 15 times between 2004 to 2014.

 

However, these developments have since slowed. The declining costs in sequencing have since tailed off, and technological developments have slowed. While this may be in part due to the difficulty of improving existing technology, a prominent reason for the slow progress has been a lack of competition in the industry.

 

Despite this, major changes may be approaching. The recent entry of third-generation sequencing technology into the market has served to reinvigorate the market and intensify competition, with their promise of ultra-long reads and real-time sequencing. The greater insight these devices can bring, along with their promise of further lowering costs of whole-genome sequencing, could lead to a new age of personalized medicine and greatly expand the sequencing market, bringing in the next revolution of DNA sequencing. Several significant recent developments have also been observed in the NGS market itself. Multiple start-ups have emerged, each with the aim of further lowering the costs of and improving the accuracy of sequencing. The imminent expiry of several key patents of a major player will also allow China-based genomics giant BGI to enter the US sequencing market, further escalating competition.

 

In this report, IDTechEx discusses the technologies involved in DNA sequencing. The report provides in-depth analyses of the sequencing methods employed by key players in the sequencing industry, including:

 

These technologies are benchmarked against each other to provide a comprehensive understanding of the technological landscape. Comparisons of sequencing platforms are also used to identify business strategies of various players, along with several unmet needs for current instruments.

 

Of the sequencing technologies discussed above, the third generation nanopore sequencing method is of particular interest. Nanopore sequencing can provide unprecedented read lengths, far exceeding that of any other sequencing method. However, what may be one of the most compelling arguments for nanopore sequencing is the that they may remove the need for many of the reagents needed for sequencing today; this could help significantly lower the cost of DNA sequencing. As such, this report explores the technology for the different components of nanopore sequencing in depth. A prominent drawback for nanopore sequencers today is their comparative lack of accuracy; this report analyzes current research directions for mitigation of this problem, along with addressing several further drawbacks of nanopore sequencing.

 

 

The report goes on to describe the various applications and business models for DNA sequencing, identifying the current and potential usage of sequencing in each. The requirements for sequencing instruments across a variety of applications are considered and discussed to help readers better identify suitable markets for a given sequencing platform. The report provides insight into the barriers of entry and challenges faced for current and prospective players, along with an analysis of the business models employed by various players across the entire industry. The report concludes by forecasting the future of the DNA sequencing market, covering the revenue forecast by market segment and by sequencing device generation up to 2033.

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