Véhicules électriques à pile à combustible 2024-2044 : marchés, technologies et prévisions

IDTechEx's report "Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles 2024-2044: Markets, Technologies, and Forecasts" explores the market for on-road fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) including cars, light commercial vehicles, medium- and heavy-duty trucks, and buses. The report covers the market drivers, barriers, players, technology, models, benchmarking, and forecasts adoption for the next 20 years for unit sales, fuel cell demand, battery demand, and market value.

 

In response to the threat posed by climate change and poor urban air quality many countries are tightening emissions regulation to reduce the impact from on-road transportation. This legislation is forcing OEMs away from traditional combustion engines and toward zero emission powertrains. The two key technologies to achieve this are battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and FCEVs.

 

Whilst the market for pure battery-electric vehicles (BEV) is beginning to take-off in many transport segments, the energy density limits of lithium-ion batteries means that the range of battery electric vehicles is restricted by both the maximum weight of batteries that can be carried by a vehicle and the available space for batteries within that vehicle. Fuel cell technologies offer automakers an avenue to greater vehicle range, whilst still delivering the crucial reduction in on-road exhaust emissions.

 

A further significant benefit of fuel cell systems is that the refueling of hydrogen tanks is similar to refueling conventional combustion engine vehicles (a few minutes) and is considerably faster than comparatively slow electric charging, which can take several hours. The range and refueling advantage of FCEV could be particularly critical for the viability of zero-emission heavy-duty truck and bus operations, where there is a high daily range requirement, long operating hours, and the need for operational flexibility.

 

 

Progress in the passenger car market for fuel cells has largely been driven by Toyota and Hyundai, following the exit of Honda's Clarity in 2021. Many other major OEMs have invested significant in the technology over the past 30 years including Ford, GM, Volkswagen, Daimler, and BMW. Toyota and Hyundai accounted for the vast majority of global FC car sales in 2021 and 2022, with around 15,000 sales in each year.

 

 

China is seeing a growing interest in FC cars, with several OEMs now demonstrating models which given the support from China towards a hydrogen economy, could see future success.

 

Battery electric vehicles, whose development began in earnest at a similar time to FCEV, sold more than 7.7 million units in 2022. Whilst IDTechEx predicts fuel cell cars to experience growth over the forecast period, it will remain a very small portion of zero emission cars, with BEVs taking the majority share.

 

 

Fuel cell vehicle deployment faces considerable challenges, including decreasing the cost of fuel cell system components to reduce the upfront cost of fuel cell vehicles, and rolling out sufficient hydrogen refueling infrastructure to make driving a FCEV workable. Also essential will be the availability of cheap 'green' hydrogen, produced by the electrolysis of water using renewable electricity, which analysis in the new IDTechEx report highlights will be vital to FCEVs delivering the environmental credentials on which they are being sold.

 

The most developed, cheapest, and scalable method currently available for hydrogen generation is steam methane (natural gas) reforming. H₂ produced by this method is known as "grey hydrogen". This process however produces a significant volume of CO₂, meaning the well-to-wheel carbon footprint of FCEV using grey hydrogen would offer a very limited emission reduction potential over modern combustion engine vehicles. This IDTechEx report looks at hydrogen and renewable energy generation to analyze the CO₂ generated per km for BEVs and FCEVs under various assumptions. FCEVs only make sense in terms of emissions reduction if the hydrogen used is green and grey hydrogen can make them comparable to existing diesel engines.

 

Despite significant challenges for the FCEV market, many governments around the world are offering significant support for the development of zero-emission vehicles, with several major economies including Japan, Korea, Germany, and China backing efforts for an extensive transformation away from fossil fuels to a wider hydrogen economy. With the backing of governments, increasing interest from large multinational energy firms who have recognized they need a strategy to transition to cleaner fuels, and strong commitment being shown by several major OEMs (though chiefly Toyota and Hyundai), there is currently a clear concerted effort to push FCEV development and deployment.

 

 

Of particular focus in the IDTechEx report are the heavy-duty truck and bus markets, which operate demanding applications that require long daily range, have constrained refueling time availability, and require operational flexibility. Whilst this segment of the transport industry is also facing tightening legislative requirements to reduce exhaust emissions, BEV solutions are potentially less feasible in these applications, with the weight and cost of the lithium-ion battery required to deliver the daily-duty cycle prohibitive. These applications therefore offer a market segment where FCEVs could offer the only viable zero-emission solution. This new report looks in detail at the challenge of employing fuel cell commercial vehicles, including CAPEX costs, the influence of H₂ fuel cost on viability, and examples from current FCEV deployments.

 

 

This report and its granular market forecasts will be of interest to companies across the transport value chain: fuel cell and electrolyzer manufacturers, battery and electric motor manufacturers, hydrogen refueling infrastructure developers, parts and systems suppliers, along with companies in the energy sector, government agencies, research organizations, and companies or individuals looking to invest in a technology that has the potential to be a vital element in efforts to decarbonize the transportation sector.

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