Mercati della rimozione dell'anidride carbonica (CDR) 2023-2040: tecnologie, attori e previsioni

Meeting net-zero emissions targets will, above all, require swift and meaningful emissions reductions, which are expected to come from efforts such as fossil fuel replacement and efficiency improvement. However, it is becoming increasingly clear that removing carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere will be needed to avoid global warming beyond 1.5-2°C. Estimates vary, but climate scenarios suggest that it will be almost impossible to meet the targets set out by the Paris Agreement without leveraging carbon dioxide removal (CDR) solutions. For this reason, negative emissions technologies (NETs) have been receiving increased attention from researchers, governments, investors, entrepreneurs, and various corporations with ambitious climate goals.

 

This report provides a comprehensive outlook of the emerging CDR industry, with an in-depth analysis of the technological, economic, regulatory, and environmental aspects that are shaping this market. In it, IDTechEx focuses on technologies that actively draw CO₂ from the atmosphere and sequester it into carbon sinks, namely:

1. Direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), which leverages chemical processes to capture CO₂ directly from the air and sequester it in geologic formations or durable products.

2. Biomass with carbon removal and storage (BiCRS), which uses biomass to produce energy (also known as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage or BECCS) or durable products, such as biochar and construction materials, while locking most of the carbon captured during photosynthesis. It includes bio-oil underground injection.

3. Land-based CDR methods that leverage biological processes to increase carbon stocks in soils, forests, and other terrestrial ecosystems, i.e. afforestation and reforestation and soil carbon sequestration techniques.

4. Mineralization NETs that enhance natural mineral processes that permanently bind CO₂ from the atmosphere with rocks through enhanced rock weathering, carbonation of mineral wastes, and oxide looping.

5. Ocean-based CDR methods that strengthen the ocean carbon pump through ocean alkalinity enhancement, electrochemical direct ocean capture, artificial upwelling/downwelling, coastal blue carbon, algae cultivation/marine permaculture, and ocean fertilization.

 

 

These CDR technologies are at vastly different stages of readiness. Some are nearly ready for large-scale deployment, whilst others require basic scientific research.

 

 

Nature-based solutions, particularly land-based, dominate the supply of CDR today due to their low cost and high maturity, but they are hard to monitor, and the permanence of carbon sequestration is still uncertain. Methodologies to ensure that the amount and permanence of removals are quantified robustly and transparently are needed. On the other hand, DACCS and BECCS, which are often referred to as 'engineered' CDR solutions, are easier to monitor and quantify net emissions, but their cost is still the main drawback for widespread adoption.

 

Despite limited current capacity, there has been much interest in DACCS as a solution to permanently remove CO₂ from the atmosphere and reverse climate change. DACCS is immediate, measurable, allows for permanent storage, can be located practically anywhere, and is likely to cause minimal ecosystem impacts.

 

However, the rate at which DACCS can be scaled-up is likely a limiting factor. The large energy inputs, requiring substantial low-carbon energy resources, the high cost, and the sorbent requirements are foreseeable challenges. The industry is aiming for the ambitious target of gigatonne-scale of DACCS removals by 2050. To make this happen, corporate action, investments, policy shapers, and regulatory guidelines need to come together to bring down the costs.

 

Although BECCS has taken center stage in high-profile models projecting pathways compatible with the Paris Agreement, deployment has historically been slow, and planned capacity is modest. Despite the technologies behind BECCS being relatively mature, there is a risk that using biomass for CO₂ removal and storage may compete with agricultural land and water or negatively impact biodiversity and conservation. IDTechEx analysis has indicated that BECCS has a large potential to contribute to climate change mitigation, though not at the scale assumed in some models due to economic and environmental risk factors.

 

 

There are growing concerns that valuable resources will be allocated to drawing down CO₂ from the air as opposed to preventing emissions from reaching the atmosphere in the first place. Indeed, although most of the world's mitigation efforts will need to be done by reducing emissions, there is evidence that deploying certain NETs may be more cost-effective and less disruptive than reducing some hard-to-abate emissions.

 

Incremental reductions in anthropogenic emissions will likely become more expensive once they reach very low levels, whilst the cost of effective NETs will likely reduce with deployment. In such a scenario, methods for reduction and removal of emissions may become competitors for an extended period. Nevertheless, a competitive scenario can be desirable as it can improve the world's ability to manage unexpected risks inherent to mitigation actions. The vast availability of low-cost mitigation solutions will only become a reality if both CDR and emission abatement solutions are developed in tandem and act as complementary components of a diverse mitigation portfolio.

 

 

This IDTechEx report assesses the CDR market in detail, evaluating the different technologies, latest advancements, and potential adoption drivers and barriers. The report also includes a granular forecast until 2040 for the deployment of seven NET categories (DACCS, BECCS, biochar, bio-oil, land-based CDR, ex situ mineralization, and ocean-based CDR), alongside exclusive analysis and interview-based company profiles.

 

This report provides the following information:

 

Technology and market analysis:

 

Player analysis and trends:

 

Market forecasts and analysis:

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