1. | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY |
1.1. | List of acronyms |
1.2. | Companies profiled |
1.3. | What are VR, AR, MR and XR? |
1.4. | Established applications in VR, AR & MR |
1.5. | The "metaverse": the next big thing for XR? |
1.6. | Everyone wants a chunk of the metaverse: Big Tech entry into the AR/MR market |
1.7. | Classifying headsets |
1.8. | Lessons for consumer XR success |
1.9. | Comparing XR headset OEMs |
1.10. | The future of VR |
1.11. | VR headsets: revenue forecast |
1.12. | VR still has technical challenges to overcome |
1.13. | VR: status and outlook |
1.14. | AR headsets: revenue forecast |
1.15. | AR applications in 2023 vs. 2033 |
1.16. | Consumer AR devices face tough competition |
1.17. | AR headsets as a replacement for other smart devices |
1.18. | AR: price segmentation has only just stabilized |
1.19. | The newest AR devices emphasize simplicity |
1.20. | AR: Outlook by device type |
1.21. | AR: Outlook by computing type |
1.22. | Important XR-specific components |
1.23. | SWOT: XR computing solutions |
1.24. | Technological status of VR lens technologies |
1.25. | VR lenses: key technological takeaways |
1.26. | Status and market potential of optical combiners |
1.27. | AR combiners: key technological takeaways |
1.28. | The future of VR displays |
1.29. | Technological status of AR displays |
1.30. | Summary: Displays for AR |
1.31. | Controllers and sensing connect XR devices to the environment and the user |
1.32. | Summary: Positional and motion tracking for XR |
1.33. | Common forms for XR haptic devices |
1.34. | The status of haptics in XR |
1.35. | XR headsets: state of the market in 2022 |
2. | INTRODUCTION TO VR/AR/MR |
2.1. | Overview - What are VR, AR, MR and XR? |
2.2. | Defining terms |
2.2.1. | XR nomenclature - a source of confusion |
2.2.2. | MR and AR - spectrum or subset? |
2.2.3. | XR nomenclature used in this report |
2.2.4. | Nomenclature confusion: AR, MR and smartglasses |
2.2.5. | AR vs. MR: a blurring line |
2.2.6. | Further confusion: passthrough and see-through AR/MR |
2.2.7. | Old Terminology: PC-, Standalone, and Smartphone XR |
2.2.8. | Updating terminology: Standalone vs. Tethered |
2.2.9. | Why computing defines XR devices |
2.3. | The evolution of extended reality (XR) |
2.3.1. | AR, MR, VR and XR: a brief history |
2.3.2. | The 2010s to date - the age of XR begins |
2.3.3. | Gauging interest: Google search trends |
2.3.4. | AR, MR, and VR - market development |
2.3.5. | The consumer VR market is consolidating |
2.3.6. | Applications in VR, AR & MR |
2.3.7. | The "metaverse" - hype or the new shape of the internet? |
2.4. | Introduction to VR |
2.4.1. | VR introduction: an evolving landscape |
2.4.2. | VR: who has the intellectual property? |
2.4.3. | Types of VR headset: PC, standalone, smartphone/mobile |
2.4.4. | Timeline of modern VR |
2.5. | Introduction to AR and MR devices |
2.5.1. | What makes an AR device MR-capable? |
2.6. | Overview of major players |
2.6.1. | VR headsets: major OEMs |
2.6.2. | AR/MR headsets: major OEMs |
2.6.3. | Potential Big Tech entries to the AR market (I) |
2.6.4. | Potential Big Tech entries to the AR market (II) |
2.6.5. | ByteDance and Pico - late to the metaverse race? |
2.6.6. | The outlook for XR: Comparing the VR, AR and MR markets |
3. | MARKET FORECASTS |
3.1. | Overview |
3.1.1. | VR headset forecasting: important data sources |
3.1.2. | AR headset forecasting: important data sources |
3.1.3. | Methodology - device and component forecasts |
3.1.4. | AR and VR headsets: state of the market in 2022 |
3.1.5. | AR and VR headsets: Component technology choices |
3.2. | Forecasts: VR headsets and components |
3.2.1. | VR: Historic device sales |
3.2.2. | Data on PC VR headset usage for gaming |
3.2.3. | Evolution in VR headset adoption for gaming |
3.2.4. | Cyclic nature of VR hardware sales |
3.2.5. | Product release timelines: Oculus/Meta and HTC |
3.2.6. | VR headsets: volume forecast |
3.2.7. | VR headsets: revenue forecast |
3.2.8. | VR forecast data tables |
3.2.9. | VR headset forecasts: discussion |
3.2.10. | VR displays: technological trends |
3.2.11. | VR component forecasting: displays |
3.2.12. | VR lenses: the winning technological solutions |
3.2.13. | VR component forecasting: lenses |
3.2.14. | Eye tracking in VR: forecasting overall adoption rate |
3.2.15. | VR component forecasting: eye tracking |
3.2.16. | Eye tracking - discussing technology adoption |
3.2.17. | Prominent technical challenges to be addressed |
3.2.18. | VR forecasting: Summary and outlook (I) |
3.2.19. | VR forecasting: Summary and outlook (II) |
3.3. | Forecasts: AR headsets and components |
3.3.1. | AR: Defining terminology (I) |
3.3.2. | AR: Defining terminology (II) |
3.3.3. | What is not considered in forecasting |
3.3.4. | AR: Historic device sales |
3.3.5. | AR: Outlook by device type |
3.3.6. | AR: Outlook by computing type |
3.3.7. | AR headsets: volume forecast |
3.3.8. | AR headsets: revenue forecast |
3.3.9. | AR headsets: volume forecast (subdivided by computing type) |
3.3.10. | AR headsets: revenue forecast (subdivided by computing type) |
3.3.11. | AR forecast data tables |
3.3.12. | AR forecast data tables - subdivided by computing type |
3.3.13. | AR combiners: Promising technological candidates |
3.3.14. | AR component forecasts: optical combiners |
3.3.15. | AR displays: the strongest future choices |
3.3.16. | AR component forecasts: displays |
3.3.17. | Eye tracking in AR: forecasting overall adoption rate |
3.3.18. | AR component forecasting: eye tracking |
3.3.19. | AR forecasting : Summary and Outlook (I) |
3.3.20. | AR forecasting: Summary and outlook (II) |
3.4. | Forecasts: XR accessories |
3.4.1. | XR accessories: revenue forecast |
3.4.2. | Haptics in XR accessories: revenue forecast |
3.5. | Forecasts: overall summary |
3.5.1. | Key points from this report's forecasts |
4. | XR APPLICATIONS AND CONTENT |
4.1. | Overview |
4.1.1. | VR vs. AR: comparing applications in 2022 |
4.1.2. | What is a computing platform? |
4.1.3. | XR devices and the metaverse |
4.1.4. | Industry 4.0 and XR |
4.1.5. | VR/AR solutions for Industry 4.0 |
4.1.6. | Building software for XR: software development kits, game engines and standardization |
4.1.7. | The OpenXR standard - unifying the XR ecosystem |
4.1.8. | Segmenting XR target customers |
4.1.9. | Customer targeting in VR vs. AR |
4.2. | VR applications |
4.2.1. | VR devices and their use environment |
4.2.2. | Gaming dominates VR for consumers |
4.2.3. | The VR games industry |
4.2.4. | HTC is trying to find a new niche with the Vive Flow |
4.2.5. | What makes a VR headset suitable for professional use? |
4.2.6. | VR for enterprise: diverse applications, similar hardware |
4.2.7. | The Meta/Oculus Quest 2 remains the XR device to beat - but the road has been bumpy |
4.2.8. | Avatar Medical: VR-viewable medical imaging |
4.2.9. | VR applications in 2023 vs. 2033 |
4.2.10. | VR applications: outlook |
4.3. | AR applications |
4.3.1. | Smartphones have introduced the public to AR |
4.3.2. | SDKs for smartphone AR |
4.3.3. | Smartphone AR is defining applications for AR headsets |
4.3.4. | Visionaries 777 (I): rich 3D AR content for smartphones and headsets |
4.3.5. | Visionaries 777 (II): from marketing to training and productivity |
4.3.6. | Niantic and Pokémon Go: how much does AR add to smartphone gaming? |
4.3.7. | Qualcomm and Snapdragon Spaces |
4.3.8. | Consumer AR headsets: a rocky history |
4.3.9. | AR headsets as a replacement for other smart devices |
4.3.10. | Consumer AR devices face tough competition |
4.3.11. | Consumer AR in the short to medium term |
4.3.12. | Tilt 5: finding a niche for AR gaming |
4.3.13. | Nreal: AR as a replacement for screens |
4.3.14. | Commercial usage of AR headsets |
4.3.15. | Holo|one: streamlining commerical AR |
4.3.16. | HoloForge/Asobo Studios: bringing game development expertise to enterprise XR |
4.3.17. | Immersion: IT for XR devices |
4.3.18. | Artificial intelligence holds the key to AR's future |
4.3.19. | AR applications in 2023 vs 2033 |
4.3.20. | AR applications: outlook |
5. | HEADSETS |
5.1. | Historic trends in XR headsets |
5.1.1. | Analyzing hardware trends |
5.1.2. | Price segmentation vs. target use case |
5.1.3. | VR: price evolution within segments (consumer) |
5.1.4. | VR: price evolution within segments (professional) |
5.1.5. | AR: price segmentation has only just stabilized |
5.2. | Trends in XR optics and displays |
5.2.1. | FoV evolution is relatively static |
5.2.2. | VR devices prioritize FoV over pixel density |
5.2.3. | AR pixel density is ahead of VR - and rapidly improving |
5.2.4. | VR screen resolution evolution outpaces AR |
5.2.5. | Higher FOV generally increases device weight |
5.2.6. | VR image quality vs. price - do you get what you pay for? |
5.2.7. | AR image quality vs. price: muddy waters |
5.2.8. | Trends in optics and displays: conclusion |
5.3. | Trends in other XR specifications |
5.3.1. | Reduction in device weight appears underprioritized |
5.3.2. | For VR positional tracking, 3DoF systems are dying out |
5.3.3. | AR tracking capabilities lag VR, showing the retreat of mixed reality-capable devices |
5.3.4. | Expectations for the future of XR device specifications |
5.4. | VR headsets |
5.4.1. | Introduction to VR |
5.4.2. | VR introduction: an evolving landscape |
5.4.3. | VR: who has the intellectual property? |
5.4.4. | Types of VR headset: PC, standalone, smartphone/mobile |
5.4.5. | Timeline of modern VR |
5.4.6. | Smartphone VR - the gateway to VR |
5.4.7. | Smartphone VR: from dominance to obsolescence |
5.4.8. | Was smartphone VR intended to be a long-term prospect? |
5.4.9. | Tethered VR - defining the VR experience |
5.4.10. | Tethered VR - device compatibility |
5.4.11. | Standalone VR - simplifying VR |
5.4.12. | Generating mass appeal in VR |
5.4.13. | Standalone vs. tethered VR - asserting a new status quo |
5.4.14. | The rapid rise of standalone VR |
5.4.15. | VR headsets and application specificity |
5.4.16. | Compact VR devices and the search to stand out |
5.4.17. | VR headsets: summary |
5.5. | Profiles of VR industry players |
5.5.1. | Pico's entry to the consumer market |
5.5.2. | Lynx Reality (I): production delays and challenging conditions for hardware startups |
5.5.3. | Lynx Reality (II): battery development and upcoming devices |
5.5.4. | Lynx Reality (III): user experience and ecosystem compatibility |
5.5.5. | Panasonic/Shiftall - beaten to market by HTC? |
5.5.6. | Shiftall MeganeX vs. Vive Flow - who are they aimed at? |
5.6. | AR headsets - Including MR-capable AR |
5.6.1. | AR device designs vary based on application |
5.6.2. | What will the AR device of the future look like? |
5.6.3. | Hardware hurdles hindering AR ubiquity |
5.6.4. | Target sectors for AR products |
5.6.5. | How many AR product announcements see release? |
5.6.6. | Categories of AR/MR |
5.6.7. | AR announcements by computing type - standalone devices dominate |
5.6.8. | Targets for AR hardware |
5.7. | Profiles of AR industry players |
5.7.1. | Lenovo and the ThinkReality A3 (I) |
5.7.2. | Lenovo and the ThinkReality A3 (II) |
5.7.3. | Microsoft's HoloLens 2 (I) — design |
5.7.4. | Microsoft's HoloLens 2 (II) — display and optics |
5.7.5. | Snap's AR Spectacles development kit: spectacular looks, less-than-spectacular battery life |
5.7.6. | Mira: simplifying AR |
5.7.7. | Vuzix: industrial AR leaders |
5.8. | Other smart headwear |
5.8.1. | Wearables related to VR: FPV and video glasses |
5.8.2. | Wearables related to AR: hearing glasses, camera glasses |
5.8.3. | Audio and camera glasses as a stepping stone to consumer AR |
5.8.4. | Outlook for non-XR smart headwear |
6. | COMPONENTS |
6.1. | Computing and communications |
6.1.1. | Why computing defines XR devices |
6.1.2. | Tethered vs. Standalone: a resurgence for tethered headsets? Not likely. |
6.1.3. | Chipsets: powering standalone XR |
6.1.4. | How do specialist XR SoCs differ? |
6.1.5. | Why are SoCs appearing in tethered XR headsets? |
6.1.6. | The line between Tethered and Standalone XR is blurring |
6.1.7. | AR devices as "heads-up smartwatches" |
6.1.8. | VR backpack computing: a transition technology |
6.1.9. | Case study (I): location-based entertainment, WiFi 6E and HTC's Vive Focus 3 |
6.1.10. | HTC Vive case study (II): WiFi 6E's capabilities and the next steps |
6.1.11. | Unlink VR case study: optical communication with headsets |
6.1.12. | SWOT: XR computing solutions (I) |
6.1.13. | SWOT: XR computing solutions (II) |
6.2. | XR optics |
6.2.1. | Motivation - why are XR optics important? |
6.2.2. | Optical requirements for XR |
6.2.3. | AR/MR vs. VR optics: development status and design considerations |
6.2.4. | Defining field of view (FoV) - a key consideration for XR optics and headsets |
6.2.5. | The vergence-accommodation conflict |
6.2.6. | Comparing the future of the VR and AR optics industries |
6.3. | VR optics |
6.3.1. | Introduction |
6.3.2. | The VR optics technology landscape |
6.3.3. | Fresnel lenses: SWOT analysis |
6.3.4. | Polarization-based pancake lenses |
6.3.5. | Devices using pancake lenses |
6.3.6. | Catadioptric freeform prism lenses |
6.3.7. | Solutions to the vergence-accommodation conflict for VR |
6.3.8. | SWOT: VA conflict solutions (I) |
6.3.9. | SWOT: VA conflict solutions (II) |
6.3.10. | Technological status of VR lens technologies |
6.3.11. | VR lenses: key technological takeaways |
6.4. | AR optics |
6.4.1. | Optical combiners: definition and classification |
6.4.2. | Optical combiners for AR |
6.4.3. | Common waveguide architectures |
6.4.4. | Common waveguide architectures: Operating principle and device examples |
6.4.5. | Common waveguides architectures: the influence of eyebox size |
6.4.6. | Introduction: reflective (geometric) waveguides |
6.4.7. | Reflective waveguides: SWOT Analysis |
6.4.8. | Introduction: diffractive waveguides |
6.4.9. | Diffractive waveguides: method of operation |
6.4.10. | Introduction: surface relief grating waveguides |
6.4.11. | Surface relief grating waveguide example: Magic Leap 1 |
6.4.12. | Diffractive waveguides (SRG): SWOT Analysis |
6.4.13. | Introduction: Volume holographic grating waveguides |
6.4.14. | Diffractive waveguides (VHG): SWOT Analysis |
6.4.15. | Trouble at Microsoft? The future of HoloLens devices and possible usage of holographic waveguides |
6.4.16. | Birdbath optics: current top choice for lower-end AR |
6.4.17. | Birdbath combiners: SWOT analysis |
6.4.18. | Lumus: Company overview |
6.4.19. | Dispelix: Company overview |
6.4.20. | DigiLens: Company overview (I) |
6.4.21. | DigiLens: Company overview (II) |
6.4.22. | Status and market potential of optical combiners |
6.4.23. | AR combiners: key technological takeaways |
6.5. | XR displays |
6.5.1. | Introduction: Displays for AR/VR |
6.5.2. | Displays for AR/VR: Technology breakdown |
6.5.3. | How do display requirements differ between AR and VR? |
6.5.4. | Foveated rendering and displays: Higher display quality at reduced resolution for both VR and AR |
6.6. | VR displays |
6.6.1. | Display types in VR products |
6.6.2. | Comparing VR display types |
6.6.3. | VR headset example utilizing LCD |
6.6.4. | Overview of OLED displays |
6.6.5. | LCDs for VR: set to remain dominant? |
6.6.6. | New headsets and the OLED resurgence |
6.6.7. | Summary: Displays for VR |
6.7. | AR displays |
6.7.1. | Fragmented display market for AR displays |
6.7.2. | Micro-display technology comparison (I) |
6.7.3. | Micro-display technology comparison (II) |
6.7.4. | Jade Bird Display (JBD): Company overview |
6.7.5. | TriLite: Company overview |
6.7.6. | Display types in AR/MR Products: Summary |
6.7.7. | VividQ: holographic displays for AR |
6.7.8. | SWOT: "True 3D" displays |
6.7.9. | Summary: Displays for AR (I) |
6.7.10. | Summary: Displays for AR (II) |
6.8. | Overview of XR sensing |
6.8.1. | Controllers and sensing connect XR devices to the environment and the user |
6.8.2. | Where are XR sensors located? |
6.8.3. | Sensors case study: Microsoft's HoloLens 2 |
6.9. | Positional and motion tracking |
6.9.1. | 3DoF vs. 6DoF: what motion can my headset track? |
6.9.2. | 6DoF tracking setups: inside-out vs. outside-in |
6.9.3. | Tracking (1) - A basic explanation of an inside-out setup |
6.9.4. | Tracking (2) - A typical outside-in PC VR setup |
6.9.5. | Beyond 6DoF: what else might XR headsets track? |
6.9.6. | 3D imaging and motion capture |
6.9.7. | Application example: Motion capture in animation |
6.9.8. | Stereoscopic vision |
6.9.9. | Time of Flight (ToF) cameras for depth sensing |
6.9.10. | Structured light |
6.9.11. | Comparison of 3D imaging technologies |
6.9.12. | Ultraleap: hand tracking without the controllers |
6.9.13. | Microsoft: from Kinect to HoloLens |
6.9.14. | Intel's RealSense™: structured light for 3D motion tracking vs. stereoscopic cameras |
6.9.15. | Summary: Positional and motion tracking for XR |
6.10. | Eye tracking |
6.10.1. | Why is eye-tracking important for AR/VR devices? |
6.10.2. | Eye-tracking sensor categories |
6.10.3. | Eye-tracking using cameras with machine vision |
6.10.4. | Eye-tracking companies based on conventional/NIR cameras and machine vision software |
6.10.5. | Event-based vision: Pros and cons |
6.10.6. | Importance of software for event-based vision |
6.10.7. | Prophesee: Company overview |
6.10.8. | Eye tracking with laser scanning MEMS |
6.10.9. | AdHawk Microsystems: Laser scanning MEMS for eye tracking |
6.10.10. | Capacitive sensing of eye movement |
6.10.11. | Somalytics: Company overview |
6.10.12. | Summary: Eye-tracking for XR |
6.11. | Haptics |
6.11.1. | Haptics: bringing another sense into XR |
6.11.2. | Classes of haptic feedback |
6.11.3. | Commodity haptic feedback actuators |
6.11.4. | Common forms for XR haptic devices |
6.11.5. | Haptics in XR controllers |
6.11.6. | Short-term steps for XR controller haptics |
6.11.7. | Wearable haptic interfaces in VR |
6.11.8. | Where can enhanced haptic experiences add value to XR? |
6.11.9. | Meta's microfluidic glove |
6.11.10. | SenseGlove: haptics and motion capture |
6.11.11. | Actronika: haptic vests conveying a full range of sensations |
6.11.12. | WeART - fingertip thermal haptics for XR |
6.11.13. | Contactless haptics: suitable for XR? |
6.11.14. | Summary: Haptics for XR |
6.12. | The future of interfacing with XR devices |
6.12.1. | "Traditional" computing has yet to fully replace the keyboard - doing so is imperative for XR |
6.12.2. | Solving the XR interface equation: low-profile measurement methods |
6.12.3. | Electromyography (EMG) - measuring the muscles |
6.12.4. | Meta's prototype EMG wristband measures finger position with mm resolution |
6.12.5. | Electroencephalography (EEG) - reading the brain |
6.12.6. | An opportunity for EEG in XR |
6.12.7. | Summary: Emerging XR interface technologies |