1. | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY |
1.1. | Report Introduction |
1.2. | Electric Vehicle Definitions |
1.3. | Electric Car Sales 2015-2043: BEV, PHEV, FCEV, HEV, ICE |
1.4. | Hybrid Car Sales Surges |
1.5. | Electric Car Sales 2015-2043: US, China, Norway, UK, France, Germany, Netherlands, Denmark, RoW |
1.6. | Regional Trends: China |
1.7. | Regional Trends: US |
1.8. | Regional Trends: EU + UK + EFTA |
1.9. | Electric Car Sales by Region (Data Table) |
1.10. | Automaker & Government EV Targets |
1.11. | Cars: Total Cost of Ownership |
1.12. | Shortages Across the Supply Chain |
1.13. | Average Battery Capacity Forecast: China, Europe, US, RoW |
1.14. | Global Battery Demand by Region 2015-2043 (GWh) |
1.15. | Global Revenues 2015-2043: BEV, PHEV, FCEV ($ billion) |
1.16. | Autonomous Cars 2015-2043: L2, L3, Private L4, Shared L4 |
1.17. | Access to 18 IDTechEx Portal Company Profiles |
2. | GLOBAL TRENDS AND MARKET DRIVERS |
2.1. | Regional Electric Car Markets in 2021 |
2.2. | Automaker Market Rankings |
2.3. | Powertrain Tailpipe Emissions Comparison |
2.4. | Grid Emissions |
2.5. | COP26 Transport Targets |
2.6. | Hybrid Car Sales Surges |
2.7. | Hybrid Car (HEV) Manufacturer Market Share |
2.8. | Shortages Across the Supply Chain |
2.9. | Raw Material Price Increases |
2.10. | Lithium Shortage |
2.11. | Chip Shortages - Background |
2.12. | Chip Shortages - Electric Vehicles |
2.13. | Chip Shortages - Automaker Reactions |
3. | CHINA: SALES, POLICY & TECHNOLOGY TRENDS |
3.1. | Chapter summary |
3.2. | New energy vehicles |
3.3. | What's Driving Electrification in China? |
3.4. | Car Sales and Two-wheeler Sales in China |
3.5. | Electric vehicle data sources in China |
3.6. | Monthly NEV sales 2016-2020 |
3.7. | Monthly NEV Sales 2020-2022 |
3.8. | 'Zero-covid' Policy |
3.9. | The Dual-credit System |
3.10. | Automakers Ranked by the Credit System |
3.11. | Credit Price Changes |
3.12. | OEM Market Shares in China 2015-2021 |
3.13. | China Purchase Subsidy 2020-2022 |
3.14. | NEV Sales by Vehicle Class |
3.15. | Battery Chemistry Trends: China |
3.16. | Batterymaker Market Shares in China |
3.17. | Electric Car Forecast by Powertrain: China |
3.18. | Charging Infrastructure: China Summary |
3.19. | Charging Infrastructure Province and Municipalities in China |
3.20. | Private & Public Charging Uptake Ratio: China |
3.21. | Battery Swapping Growth in China |
3.22. | Battery Swap Stations in Chinese Cities |
4. | US: SALES, POLICY & TECHNOLOGY TRENDS |
4.1. | Chapter Summary |
4.2. | US Electric Vehicle Sales |
4.3. | US Electric Vehicle OEM Market Shares |
4.4. | 2022 Monthly Sales |
4.5. | US PHEV arguments |
4.6. | US Electric Vehicle Target |
4.7. | Final US Emissions Standards |
4.8. | US: Plug-in Electric Vehicle Tax Credit |
4.9. | Electric Vehicle Registrations by State |
4.10. | Electric Pickups - The Next Big Thing |
4.11. | General Motors' Future Mobility Plans |
4.12. | 'Technology' Automakers & 'Sony-Honda Mobility' |
4.13. | Battery Chemistry Trends: US |
4.14. | Public Charging Stations in the US |
4.15. | Private & Public Charging Uptake Ratio: US |
5. | EUROPE: SALES, POLICY & TECHNOLOGY TRENDS |
5.1. | Chapter Summary |
5.2. | Historic Electric Vehicle Sales |
5.3. | EU + UK + EFTA Sales H1 2022 |
5.4. | Historic Electric Vehicle Sales By Model |
5.5. | Battery Chemistry Trends: Europe |
5.6. | EU ICE Ban by 2035 |
5.7. | Europe Emissions Standards |
5.8. | Europe Plug-in Hybrid Outlook |
5.9. | The Status of Public Charging in Europe |
5.10. | Private & Public Charging Uptake Ratio: Europe |
6. | FUEL CELL VEHICLES |
6.1. | Fuel Cell Technology Introduction |
6.1.1. | PEMFC Working Principle |
6.1.2. | Fuel Cell Energy Density Advantage |
6.1.3. | PEMFC Assembly and Materials |
6.1.4. | Role of the Gas Diffusion Layer |
6.1.5. | Toyota Fuel Cell |
6.2. | Fuel Cells: Barriers to Adoption |
6.2.1. | Fuel Cell Energy Efficiency |
6.2.2. | 'E-Fuels' Comparison |
6.2.3. | Hydrogen Production Methods |
6.2.4. | Hydrogen: Emissions & Cost Issues |
6.2.5. | Fuelling Costs Petrol vs Hydrogen |
6.2.6. | Energy Cost per Mile: FCEV, BEV, Internal-combustion |
6.2.7. | Hydrogen Infrastructure |
6.2.8. | Hydrogen Infrastructure Costs |
6.3. | Fuel Cell Markets, Forecasts & Players |
6.3.1. | Growth of Fuel Cell Passenger Cars |
6.3.2. | Fuel Cell Car Forecasts |
6.3.3. | OEMs on Developing FCEVs |
6.3.4. | Reality of the FCEV Range Advantage over BEV |
6.3.5. | Fuel Cell Car Models |
6.3.6. | FCEV Purchase Incentives |
6.3.7. | South Korean FCEV Subsidy |
6.3.8. | Toyota Mirai 2nd Generation |
6.3.9. | Toyota Mirai 2nd Gen. Significant Upgrades |
6.3.10. | Toyota Mirai 2nd Gen H2 Safety Measures |
6.3.11. | Toyota Mirai Sales 2014-2021 |
6.3.12. | Hyundai NEXO SUV |
6.3.13. | Hyundai FCEV Improvements |
6.3.14. | Hyundai NEXO Hydrogen Tanks |
6.3.15. | Hyundai FCEV Goals |
6.3.16. | Hyundai NEXO Sales |
6.3.17. | BMW i Hydrogen NEXT FCEV |
6.3.18. | Chinese FCEV Cars |
6.3.19. | SAIC China's FCEV Car Pioneer |
6.3.20. | Announced Chinese FCEV Cars |
6.4. | Failed FCEV Projects |
6.4.1. | Honda FCEV Development Timeline |
6.4.2. | Honda Clarity Fuel Cell |
6.4.3. | Honda Discontinue FC-Clarity: Weak Demand |
6.4.4. | Mercedes End FCEV Car Development |
6.4.5. | VW Position on Fuel Cells |
6.4.6. | VW: H2 Inefficiency as a Fuel |
6.4.7. | Audi Abandons FCEV Development |
6.4.8. | Volvo & Powercell |
7. | AUTONOMY |
7.1. | The Automation Levels in Detail |
7.2. | The Components of Autonomy |
7.3. | Typical Sensor Suite for Autonomous Cars |
7.4. | Sensors and Their Purpose |
7.5. | Important Trends in the Sensor Holy Trinity |
7.6. | ADAS Chip Power Progression |
7.7. | Autonomy is Changing the Automotive Supply Chain |
7.8. | Sensor Suite Metadata |
7.9. | MaaS Sensor Analysis |
7.10. | MaaS Sensor Suite Analysis |
7.11. | Legislation Breakdown by Region |
7.12. | Sensor Requirements for Different Levels of Autonomy |
7.13. | Car Sales Will Peak in the Early 2030s |
7.14. | MaaS Adoption Forecast |
7.15. | MaaS Market Entry by Region |
7.16. | Car Sales Broken Down by SAE Level |
7.17. | Autonomous Vehicle Markets |
8. | TECHNOLOGY TRENDS |
8.1. | Batteries |
8.1.1. | Lithium Battery Chemistries |
8.1.2. | Types of Lithium Battery |
8.1.3. | Battery Technology Comparison |
8.1.4. | The Promise of Silicon |
8.1.5. | Silicon Anode Material Opportunities |
8.1.6. | Silicon Anode - Company Benchmarking |
8.1.7. | Status & Future of the Solid State Battery Business |
8.1.8. | Solid-state Electrolyte Technology Approach |
8.1.9. | Technology Evaluation |
8.1.10. | Technology Evaluation |
8.1.11. | Solid State Battery Collaborations/Investment by Automotive OEMs |
8.1.12. | Li-ion Technology Diversification |
8.1.13. | Cathode Demand For BEV Cars (Gwh) |
8.1.14. | Li-ion Timeline Commentary |
8.1.15. | Timeline and Outlook for Li-ion Cell Energy Densities |
8.1.16. | IDTechEx Li-ion Battery Timeline |
8.1.17. | Li-ion Batteries: From Cell to Pack |
8.1.18. | Automotive Format Choices |
8.1.19. | Battery Pack Materials |
8.1.20. | Shifts in Cell and Pack Design |
8.1.21. | Eliminating the Battery Module |
8.1.22. | Will the Module Be Eliminated? |
9. | ELECTRIC MOTORS |
9.1. | Electric Motors: Continued Developments |
9.2. | Summary of Traction Motor Types |
9.3. | Convergence on PM by Major Automakers |
9.4. | Magnet Price Increase Risk |
9.5. | Reducing Rare-Earths |
9.6. | Axial Flux Motors: Emerging Players |
9.7. | Axial Flux Motors Enter the EV Market |
9.8. | Benchmark of Commercial Axial Flux Motors |
9.9. | In-Wheel Motors: Benefits |
9.10. | Examples of Vehicles with In-Wheel Motors |
9.11. | Electric Motor Outlook by Technology |
10. | POWER ELECTRONICS & 800V PLATFORMS |
10.1.1. | Power Electronics in Electric Vehicles |
10.1.2. | Power Electronics Device Ranges |
10.1.3. | Benchmarking Silicon, Silicon Carbide & Gallium Nitride |
10.1.4. | Inverter Power Modules |
10.1.5. | Inverter Package Designs |
10.1.6. | Module Packaging Material Dimensions |
10.1.7. | SiC Die Area Reduction |
10.1.8. | Silicon Carbide Size Reductions to Inverter Package |
10.1.9. | Advanced Wire Bonding Techniques |
10.1.10. | Drivers for 800V Platforms |
10.1.11. | System Changes Moving to 800V |
10.1.12. | Emerging 800V Platforms & SiC Inverters |
10.1.13. | 800V Platform Discussion & Outlook |
10.2. | Other Technology Developments |
10.2.1. | In-house Vehicle Software Platforms |
10.2.2. | Sono Motors: Solar Bodywork |
10.2.3. | Sono Motors: Achieving Low Cost |
10.2.4. | Aluminium High Voltage Cabling |
10.2.5. | Aluminium HV Cabling Disadvantages |
10.2.6. | Tesla Model 3 HV Cable |
10.2.7. | Al HV Cables Market Adoption |
10.2.8. | The Ultimate Concept EV: 1000km Range |
11. | CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE |
11.1. | Overview of Charging Levels |
11.2. | Historic Charging Installations |
11.3. | DC Fast Charging Levels |
11.4. | High Power Charging (HPC) |
11.5. | Harmonisation of Connector Standards |
11.6. | Smart Charging |
11.7. | Key Market Players |
11.8. | AC Charging Forecast 2015-2032 |
11.9. | DC Fast Charging Forecast 2015-2032 |
12. | FORECASTS |
12.1. | Long-term Forecasting of Technologies |
12.2. | Forecast Methodology |
12.3. | Forecast Methodology & FAQ |
12.4. | Forecast Assumptions |
12.5. | Electric Car Sales 2015-2043: BEV, PHEV, FCEV, HEV, ICE |
12.6. | Electric Car Sales 2015-2043: US, China, Norway, UK, France, Germany, Netherlands, Denmark, RoW |
12.7. | Average Battery Capacity Forecast: China, Europe, US, RoW |
12.8. | Global Battery Demand by Region 2015-2043 (GWh) |
12.9. | Global Revenues 2015-2043: BEV, PHEV, FCEV ($ billion) |
12.10. | Autonomous Cars 2015-2043: L2, L3, Private L4, Shared L4 |
12.11. | Electric Car Forecast by Powertrain: China |
12.12. | Private & Public Charging Uptake Ratio: China |
12.13. | Private & Public Charging Uptake Ratio: US |
12.14. | Private & Public Charging Uptake Ratio: Europe |
12.15. | Car Sales Will Peak in the Early 2030s |
12.16. | MaaS Adoption Forecast |
12.17. | Car Sales Broken Down by SAE Level |
12.18. | Cathode Demand For BEV Cars (Gwh) |
12.19. | Electric Motor Outlook by Technology |
12.20. | 800V Platform Discussion & Outlook |
12.21. | Al HV Cables Market Adoption |
12.22. | AC Charging Forecast 2015-2032 |
12.23. | DC Fast Charging Forecast 2015-2032 |